The forecast model predicted that Asafa would run 9.76 for the 100m in 2005! This year it predicts 9.65!!!
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At the end of the 2004 track and field season before the MVP athletes started their active preparation for the 2005 season a couple of us sat down to reflect on the season past and outline our plans for 2005. At that time another method for trying to accurately predict the performances of our athletes was introduced, a statistical forecasting model which inputs prior year performances to predict future results. So we inputted Asafa's season best results from 2001 to 2004 and the forecast model predicted that his 2005 season best would be 9.76 seconds. If you are reading this web page then you know that he went on to run 9.77 seconds in what ended up being an injury shorten season. So we had some converts to this statistical forecasting model. So at the end of the 2005 season we updated the model with his 9.77 second world record and the model then predicted that for 2006 he would run 9.65 seconds!!!!
We then decided to randomly choose another world class 100m runner, and input his season best results for a number of years. Interestingly the model predicted that the other athlete should do a 2005 season best of 9.80 but he "only" did a season best of 9.88 seconds, slower than his 2004 season best of 9.85. After inputting his 2005 9.88 the model now predicts that he should run a 2006 season best of 9.79 seconds.
Time will reveal. |
