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MVP FORECAST
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The forecast model predicted that Asafa would run 9.76 for
the 100m in 2005! This
year it predicts 9.65!!!
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At the end of the 2004 track and field
season before the MVP athletes started their active preparation for
the 2005 season a couple of us sat down to reflect on the season
past and outline our plans for 2005. At that time another method for
trying to accurately predict the performances of our athletes was
introduced, a statistical forecasting model which inputs prior year
performances to predict future results. So we inputted Asafa's
season best results from 2001 to 2004 and the forecast model
predicted that his 2005 season best would be 9.76 seconds. If you
are reading this web page then you know that he went on to run 9.77
seconds in what ended up being an injury shorten season. So we had
some converts to this statistical forecasting model. So at the end
of the 2005 season we updated the model with his 9.77 second world
record and the model then predicted that for 2006 he would run 9.65
seconds!!!!
We then decided to randomly choose another world class 100m
runner, and input his season best results for a number of years.
Interestingly the model predicted that the other athlete should do a
2005 season best of 9.80 but he "only" did a season best of 9.88
seconds, slower than his 2004 season best of 9.85. After inputting
his 2005 9.88 the model now predicts that he should run a 2006
season best of 9.79 seconds.
Time will reveal.
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Year |
Asafa Powell 100m season best |
Random World Class Athlete 100m SB |
| 2000 |
??? |
10.36 |
| 2001 |
10.50 |
10.08 |
| 2002 |
10.12 |
10.05 |
| 2003 |
10.02 |
9.97 |
| 2004 |
9.87 |
9.85 |
| 2005 forecast |
9.76 |
9.80 |
| 2005 actual |
9.77 |
9.88 |
| 2006 forecast |
9.65 |
9.79 |
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